Response of Climate Change Impact on Streamflow in Sululta Catchment, Abay Basin, Ethiopia
Keywords:
Climate change, Rossby Center Regional Atmospheric Model, Regional Climate Model, Stream flow, Soil and Water Assessment ToolAbstract
Ethiopia is experiencing an increasing water security risk owing to a climate change, which caused frequent draught and flooding. The increase in temperature and precipitation variability has reduced streamflow amplifying water security problems. However, evaluation of how the long-term streamflow behaves under the future climate change in the catchment are limited. Thus, the purpose of this study was to investigate the impacts of climate change on streamflow of Sululta catchment using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Precipitation and temperature outputs from Rossby Center regional Atmospheric model (RCA4) regional climate model (RCM) was bias corrected against observed data using Power transformation and variance scaling, respectively. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using observed stream flow. The performance of SWAT model in streamflow simulation showed a good agreement with R2 0.75 and 0.7 and NSE 0.71 and 0.7 during calibration and validation respectively. The projection of climate change shows precipitation decreases in dry season whereas temperature increases under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The simulation of streamflow shows that, mean annual stream flow will be increased by 11.91% in 2021s (2021-2050) and by 5.26% in 2051s (2051-2080) under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the mean annual streamflow will be decreased by 0.98% in 2021s and 1.43% in 2051s. The outcomes suggest that it is important to consider the influence of climate change on streamflow to frame appropriate guidelines for planning and management.
References
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Wu, M., Schurgers, G., Ahlström, A., Rummukainen, M., Miller, P.A., Smith, B., May, W., 2017. Impacts of land use on climate and ecosystem productivity over the Amazon and the South American continent. Environmental Research Letters 12 (5), 054016.
Wu, M., Schurgers, G., Rummukainen, M., Smith, B., Samuelsson, P., Jansson, C., Siltberg, J., May, W., 2016. Vegetation–climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change, Earth System Dynamics 7, 627-647.
Abera, F.F., Asfaw, D.H., Engida, A.N., Melesse, A.M., 2018. Optimal operation of hydropower reservoirs under climate change: The case of Tekeze reservoir, Eastern Nile. Water 10 (3), 1-18.
Abeysingha, N.S., Islam, A., Singh, M., 2020. Assessment of climate change impact on flow regimes over the Gomti River basin under IPCC AR5 climate change scenarios. Journal of Water and Climate Change 11 (1), 303-326.
Adem, A.A., Tilahun, S.A., Ayana, E.K., Worqlul, A.W., Assefa, T.T., Dessu, S.B., Melesse, A.M., 2016. Climate change impact on stream flow in the upper Gilgel Abay Catchment, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. In Landscape Dynamics, Soils and Hydrological Processes in Varied Climates (pp. 645-673), Springer, Cham.
Alemseged, T.H., Tom, R., 2015. Evaluation of regional climate model simulations of rainfall over the Upper Blue Nile basin. Atmospheric Research 161, 57-64.
Andrade, C.W., Montenegro, S.M., Montenegro, A.A., Lima, J.R.D.S., Srinivasan, R., Jones, C.A., 2021. Climate change impact assessment on water resources under RCP scenarios: A case study in Mundaú River Basin, Northeastern Brazil. International Journal of Climatology 41, E1045-E1061.
Arnold, J.G., Moriasi, D.N., Gassman, P.W., Abbaspour, K.C., White, M.J., Srinivasan, R., Santhi, C., Harmel, R.D., Van Griensven, A., Van Liew, M.W., Kannan, N., 2012. SWAT: Model use, calibration, and validation. Transactions of the ASABE 55 (4), 1491-1508.
Ayalew, D.W., Asefa, T., Moges, M.A., Leyew, S.M., 2022. Evaluating the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology of Ribb catchment, Lake Tana Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Water and Climate Change 13 (1), 190-205.
Ayugi, B., Tan, G., Gnitou, G.T., Ojara, M., Ongoma, V., 2020. Historical evaluations and simulations of precipitation over East Africa from Rossby centre regional climate model. Atmospheric Research 232, 104705.
Bai, Y., Zhang, Z., Zhao, W., 2019. Assessing the impact of climate change on flood events using HEC-HMS and CMIP5. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution 230 (6), 1-13.
Bekele, A.A., Pingale, S.M., Hatiye, S.D., Tilahun, A.K., 2019. Impact of climate change on surface water availability and crop water demand for the sub-watershed of Abbay Basin, Ethiopia. Sustainable Water Resources Management 5 (4), 1859-1875.
Bekele, W.T., Haile, A.T., Rientjes, T., 2021. Impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Arjo-Didessa catchment under RCP scenarios. Journal of Water and Climate Change 12 (6), 2325-2337.
Bhatta, B., Shrestha, S., Shrestha, P.K., Talchabhadel, R., 2019. Evaluation and application of a SWAT model to assess the climate change impact on the hydrology of the Himalayan River Basin. Catena 181, 104082.
Boru, G.F., Gonfa, Z.B., Diga, G.M., 2019. Impacts of climate change on stream flow and water availability in Anger sub-basin, Nile Basin of Ethiopia. Sustainable Water Resources Management 5 (4), 1755-1764.
Collazo, S., Lhotka, O., Rusticucci, M., Kyselý, J., 2018. Capability of the SMHI‐RCA4 RCM driven by the ERA‐Interim reanalysis to simulate heat waves in Argentina. International Journal of Climatology 38 (1), 483-496.
Dibaba, W.T., Demissie, T.A., Miegel, K., 2020. Watershed hydrological response to combined land use/land cover and climate change in highland Ethiopia: Finchaa catchment. Water 12 (6), 1801.
Dos Santos, V., Laurent, F., Abe, C., Messner, F., 2018. Hydrologic response to land use change in a large basin in Eastern Amazon. Water, 10 (4), 429.
Doulabian, S., Golian, S., Toosi, A.S., Murphy, C., 2021. Evaluating the effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature for Iran using RCP scenarios. Journal of Water and Climate Change 12 (1), 166-184.
Galata, A.W., Tullu, K.T., Guder, A.C., 2021. Evaluating watershed hydrological responses to climate changes at Hangar Watershed, Ethiopia. Journal of Water and Climate Change 12 (6), 2271-2287.
Gashaw, T., Tulu, T., Argaw, M., Worqlul, A.W., 2018. Modeling the hydrological impacts of land use/land cover changes in the Andassa watershed, Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Science of the Total Environment 619, 1394-1408.
Gassman, P.W., Reyes, M.R., Green, C.H., Arnold, J.G., 2007. The soil and water assessment tool: historical development, applications, and future research directions. Transactions of the ASABE 50 (4), 1211-1250.
Hussain, M., Liu, G., Yousaf, B., Ahmed, R., Uzma, F., Ali, M.U., Ullah, H., Butt, A.R., 2018. Regional and sectoral assessment on climate-change in Pakistan: social norms and indigenous perceptions on climate-change adaptation and mitigation in relation to global context. Journal of Cleaner Production 200, 791-808.
IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by M. L. Parry et al., Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
IPCC, 2013. Climate Change, 2013: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 159-254.
IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 1-151.
Ma, D., Qian, B., Gu, H., Sun, Z., Xu, Y.P., 2021. Assessing climate change impacts on streamflow and sediment load in the upstream of the Mekong River basin. International Journal of Climatology 41 (5), 3391-3410.
Marin, M., Clinciu, I., Tudose, N.C., Ungurean, C., Adorjani, A., Mihalache, A.L., Davidescu, A.A., Davidescu, Ș.O., Dinca, L., Cacovean, H., 2020. Assessing the vulnerability of water resources in the context of climate changes in a small forested watershed using SWAT: A Review. Environmental Research 184, 109330.
Mengistu, D., Bewket, W., Dosio, A., Panitz, H.J., 2021. Climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile (Abay) River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology 592, 125614.
Musie, M., Sen, S., Srivastava, P., 2020. Application of CORDEX-AFRICA and NEX-GDDP datasets for hydrologic projections under climate change in Lake Ziway sub-basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 31, 100721.
Neitsch, S.L., 2005. Soil and water assessment tool. User's Manual Version 2005, 476.
Neitsch, S.L., Arnold, J.G., Kiniry, J.R., Williams, J.R., 2011. Soil and water assessment tool theoretical documentation version 2009. Texas Water Resources Institute.
Nikulin, G., Lennard, C., Dosio, A., Kjellström, E., Chen, Y., Hänsler, A., Kupiainen, M., Laprise, R., Mariotti, L., Maule, C.F., van Meijgaard, E., 2018. The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble. Environmental Research Letters 13 (6), 065003.
Obahoundje, S., Ta, M.Y., Diedhiou, A., Amoussou, E., Kouadio, K., 2021. Sensitivity of Hydropower Generation to Changes in Climate and Land Use in the Mono Basin (West Africa) using CORDEX Dataset and WEAP Model. Environmental Processes 8, 1073-1097.
Rana, A., Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Strandberg, G., Kupiainen, M., Hansson, U., Kolax, M., 2020. Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia. Climate Dynamics 54 (5), 2883-2901.
Riahi, K., Rao, S., Krey, V., Cho, C., Chirkov, V., Fischer, G., Kindermann, G., Nakicenovic, N., Rafaj, P., 2011. RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Climatic Change 109 (1), 33-57.
Teklay, A., Dile, Y.T., Asfaw, D.H., Bayabil, H.K., Sisay, K., 2021. Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Hydrological Response in Gumara Watershed, Ethiopia. Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 21 (2), 315-332.
Teutschbein, C., Seibert, J., 2012. Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for hydrological climate-change impact studies: Review and evaluation of different methods. Journal of Hydrology 456, 12-29.
Teutschbein, C., Wetterhall, F., Seibert, J., 2011. Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale. Climate Dynamics 37 (9), 2087-2105.
Vaighan, A.A., Talebbeydokhti, N., Bavani, A.M., Whitehead, P., 2019. Modeling impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, nitrate, and ammonium in the Kor River, southwest of Iran. Journal of Water and Climate Change 10 (4), 818-834.
van Vuuren, D.P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G.C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.F., Masui, T., 2011. The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Climatic Change 109 (1-2), 5-31.
Wu, M., Schurgers, G., Ahlström, A., Rummukainen, M., Miller, P.A., Smith, B., May, W., 2017. Impacts of land use on climate and ecosystem productivity over the Amazon and the South American continent. Environmental Research Letters 12 (5), 054016.
Wu, M., Schurgers, G., Rummukainen, M., Smith, B., Samuelsson, P., Jansson, C., Siltberg, J., May, W., 2016. Vegetation–climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change, Earth System Dynamics 7, 627-647.
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