Investigation of the Effects of Climate Change on the Properties of Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal
Keywords:
Tropical cyclone, AGCM, d4PDF, Climate, BangladeshAbstract
The effects of climate change due to global warming are having an adverse effect on the environment of Bangladesh. Cyclones are a catastrophic disaster in our subtropical region, which is a terrible thing for coastal countries like Bangladesh. However, more research on the nature of these storms and other factors is essential for the region. This research was performed from the data of the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF), Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Statistical calibration of 40 years of current and future storms in the Bay of Bengal has been given importance along with storm activity and related issues. The characteristics of storms during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons has also been investigated. The bilateral relation has been found for the seasonal activity of a tropical cyclone (TC) in Bangladesh as well as we have shown that seasonal storms have a significant impact on this region. However, the main focus of this study is to review the seasonal behavior and other characteristics of cyclones in future due to the effects of climate change.
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Wang, C., Wang, X., Weisberg, R.H., Black, M.L., 2017. Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations. Climate Dynamics 49(11–12), 3627–3645.
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Al Mohit, M.A., Yamashiro, M., Ide, Y., Kodama, M., Hashimoto, N., 2018b. Tropical cyclone activity analysis using MRI-AGCM and d4PDF data. Proceedings of the International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference 2018-June, 852-859.
Alam, M.M., Hossain, M.A., Shafee, S., 2003. Frequency of Bay of Bengal cyclonic storms and depressions crossing different coastal zones. International Journal of Climatology 23 (9), 1119-1125.
Bhardwaj, P., Singh, O., 2020. Climatological characteristics of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones: 1972-2017. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 139 (1-2), 615-629.
Borowitz, M., 2018. Japan Meteorological Agency. Open Space. http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/index.php?prec_no=44&block_no=47662&year=&month=&day=&view= (April 21, 2022).
Cutter, S.L., Finch, C., 2008. Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 105 (7), 2301-2306.
Dunn, G.E., 1940. Cyclogenesis in the Tropical Atlantic. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 21 (6), 215–229.
Dunn, G.E., 1951. Tropical Cyclones. Compendium of Meteorology 887-901.
Emanuel, K., 2005. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436 (7051), 686-688.
Emanuel, K.A., 1987. The dependence of hurricane intensity on climate. Nature 326 (6112), 483–485.
Henderson-Sellers, A., Zhang, H., Berz, G., Emanuel, K., Gray, W., Landsea, C., Holland, G., Lighthill, J., Shieh, S.L., Webster, P., McGuffie, K., 1998. Tropical Cyclones and Global Climate Change: A Post-IPCC Assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79 (1), 19-38.
Hirahara, S., Ishii, M., Fukuda, Y., 2014. Centennial-scale sea surface temperature analysis and its uncertainty. Journal of Climate 27 (1), 57-75.
Holland, G.J., 1997. The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 54 (21), 2519-2541.
Imada, Y., Maeda, S., Watanabe, M., Shiogama, H., Mizuta, R., Ishii, M., Kimoto, M., 2017. Recent enhanced seasonal temperature contrast in Japan from large ensemble high-resolution climate simulations. Atmosphere 8 (3), 57.
Kitamoto, A., Nakahara, M., Washitani, I., Kadoya, T., Yasukawa, M., Kitsuregawa, M., 2009. Information visualization and organization for participatory monitoring of invasive alien species. Proceedings - International Workshop on Database and Expert Systems Applications, DEXA 345-349.
Knutson, T.R., Tuleya, R.E., 1999. Increased hurricane intensities with CO2-induced warming as simulated using the GFDL hurricane prediction system. Climate Dynamics 15 (7), 503-519.
Knutson, T.R., Tuleya, R.E., 2001. Impact of CO2-induced warming on hurricane intentsities as simulated in a hurricane model with ocean coupling. Journal of Climate 14 (11), 2458-2468.
Knutson, T.R., Tuleya, R.E., 2004. Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. Journal of Climate 17 (18), 3477-3495.
Leipper, D.F., Volgenau, D., 1972. Hurricane Heat Potential of the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Physical Oceanography 2 (3), 218-224.
Marín-Monroy, E.A., Trejo, V.H., de la Pena, M.A.O.R., Polanco, G.A., Barbara, N.L., 2020. Assessment of socio-environmental vulnerability due to tropical cyclones in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. Sustainability (Switzerland) 12 (4), 1575.
Mizuta, R., Oouchi, K., Yoshimura, H., Noda, A., Katayama, K., Yukimoto, S., Hosaka, M., Kusunoki, S., Kawai, H., Nakagawa, M., 2006. 20-km-mesh global climate simulations using JMA-GSM model - Mean climate states. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 84 (1), 165-185.
Mizuta, R., Yoshimura, H., Murakami, H., Matsueda, M., Endo, H., Ose, T., Kamiguchi, K., Hosaka, M., Sugi, M., Yukimoto, S., Kusunoki, S., Kitoh, A., 2012. Climate simulations using MRI-AGCM3.2 with 20-km grid. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 90 (A), 233-258.
Mondal, M., Biswas, A., Haldar, S., Mandal, S., Bhattacharya, S., Paul, S., 2022. Spatio-temporal behaviours of tropical cyclones over the bay of Bengal Basin in last five decades. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review 11 (1), 1-15.
Murakami, H., Mizuta, R., Shindo, E., 2012. Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM. Climate Dynamics 39 (9-10), 2569-2584.
Oo, A.T., Huylenbroeck, G. Van, Speelman, S., 2018. Assessment of climate change vulnerability of farm households in Pyapon District, a delta region in Myanmar. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 28, 10-21.
Oouchi, K., Yoshimura, J., Yoshimura, H., Mizuta, R., Kusunoki, S., Noda, A., 2006. Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming climate as simulated in a 20 km-mesh global atmospheric model: Frequency and wind intensity analyses. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 84 (2), 259-276.
Pandey, R.S., Liou, Y.A., 2020. Decadal behaviors of tropical storm tracks in the North West Pacific Ocean. Atmospheric Research 246.
Pinzón, R.E., Hibino, K., Takayabu, I., Nakaegawa, T., 2017. Virtually experiencing future climate changes in Central America with MRI-AGCM: Climate analogues study. Hydrological Research Letters 11 (2), 106-113.
Rabby, Y.W., Hossain, M.B., Hasan, M.U., 2019. Social vulnerability in the coastal region of Bangladesh: An investigation of social vulnerability index and scalar change effects. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 41, 101329.
Smith, R.L., 2012. of Environmental Value Analysis Extreme to Trend Time Series: An Application in Ground-Level Ozone Detection 4 (4), 367-377.
Terry, J. P., Gienko, G., 2019. Quantitative observations on tropical cyclone tracks in the Arabian Sea. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 135 (3-4), 1413-1421.
Thompson, S.L., Ramaswamy, V., 1987. Atmospheric effects of nuclear war aerosols in general circulation model simulations: influence of smoke optical properties. Journal of Geophysical Research 92 (D9), 10942-10960.
Wang, C., Wang, X., Weisberg, R.H., Black, M.L., 2017. Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations. Climate Dynamics 49(11–12), 3627–3645.
Williamson D.L., Kiehl, J.T., Ramanathan, V., Dickinson, R.E., Hack, J.J., 1987. Description of NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1), NCAR Tech. Note, NCAR/TN285+STR. December 2015, 112.
Yoshimura, H., Takayuki, M., 2005. A two-time-level vertically-conservative semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit double Fourier series AGCM. CAS/JSC WGNE Research Activities in Atmospheric and Ocean Modeling 35 (c), 3.27-3.28.
Zhang, W., Leung, Y., Chan, J.C.L., 2013. The analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the western north pacific through data mining. Part i: Tropical cyclone recurvature. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 52 (6), 1394-1416.
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